A question that everybody seems to be asking: is the conflict in Iran the early stages of a larger revolution?
The answer: yes and no. I wouldn’t be so quick to jump and call it a revolution just yet. It has only been 11 days and these protests really started out very small — the ayatollah could have easily put an end to this by simply declaring the election invalid and calling a new one. When on Friday, he didn’t do this, and in fact dared the Iranian people to defy him — this is where the problems began. Never before have the Iranian people defied the ayatollah, but his refusal to support their right to a fair election brought human rights issues that have been simmering for decades have finally been brought to the surface.
Iranians seem to be realizing that this is the best, and perhaps only, chance they will have to create a true democracy. Their protests are no longer just about the election. The problem is that they do not have a leader. Mousavi is not their leader, if anything the people are leading Mousavi. They have no formal support system and must battle not only the Iranian government, but also the basij and the revolutionary army. Because of this, I am beginning to think that if the Iranian people want a revolution they can not succeed without a leader and some form of militaristic support.
In the end, this will only be a revolution if the Iranian people want it to be.
